Bitcoin has been trapped in a narrow range since June near $64,000, about 50% below its October 2025 peak, while one-month price volatility has compressed to one of the lowest levels in its history. Fundstrat said eight earlier episodes of similarly muted trading were followed by a median absolute move of about 30% over the next 60 days, split evenly between rallies and declines, suggesting the setup points to magnitude rather than direction. Rising U.S. Treasury yields have become the main near-term catalyst under watch. Long-dated yields climbed to multi-decade highs as investors weighed widening fiscal deficits, elevated oil prices, artificial-intelligence infrastructure costs and uncertainty over monetary policy under Kevin Warsh, whom President Donald Trump appointed as Federal Reserve chair earlier this year. Analysts say Bitcoin is caught between a fiscal-dominance case that could favor hard assets and the more immediate drag of higher real yields, an 8% drop in Bitcoin-denominated futures open interest since late last week and broader macro pressure on risk assets. Even with more than $850 million of net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs last week and BlackRock's IBIT holding about 750,000 BTC worth roughly $50 billion, prices have yet to break into a clear uptrend.