Prediction market traders are increasingly betting that Anthropic will go public in 2026 rather than sooner, with Polymarket showing an 85% probability of an IPO by Dec. 31, 2026. The AI company, led by Dario Amodei, filed a draft Form S-1 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (U.S. markets regulator) on June 1, one week before Sam Altman’s OpenAI filed its own Form S-1, fueling speculation over which company will reach public markets first. On Polymarket, a Polygon-based prediction platform where users wager using USDC stablecoin, more than $1.56 million has been staked on the contract tracking an Anthropic IPO. The market assigns just a 2% chance of a listing by Sep. 15, 2026, down 33%, and an 11% chance by Sep. 30, 2026, down 75%, while confidence rises to 70% for Oct. 31, 2026, up 27%. OpenAI, meanwhile, has reportedly delayed its IPO to next year amid volatile market conditions.