Cosco and China Merchants Energy Shipping have halted oil-tanker operations through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb, two critical chokepoints for global energy trade. The move comes amid intensifying conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran, putting oil and LNG flows under pressure. The International Energy Agency has described the disruption as the largest in global oil-market history. Prediction-market pricing reflects weaker confidence in a return to normal traffic by September 30, with YES odds falling to 8.5%, while several sub-markets also indicate a lower likelihood of a U.S.-Iran diplomatic agreement. Traders are watching statements from U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, further military action by Israel or Iran, and efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.