Former adviser urges more ultra-long treasury bonds as July China data weakens

China is facing renewed calls for stronger policy support after July economic indicators softened and domestic demand remained weak. Ma Jiantang, former Party Secretary of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said at the 2026 NetEase Economists Forum Summer Session that China should moderately increase issuance of ultra-long special treasury bonds through statutory procedures to help fill the shortfall in social demand. Ma said insufficient domestic demand is the most prominent constraint on the economy. He said first-half GDP still averaged 4.7%, with growth of 5.0% in Q1 and 4.3% in Q2, supported by macro-control, the expansion of new quality productive forces and strong trade. Industrial value-added above designated size rose 5.4% in the first half, high-tech manufacturing climbed 13.3%, and services grew 4.8%. But retail sales growth slowed from 2.4% in Q1 to 1.3% cumulatively in the first half, while fixed-asset investment fell 5.7%. July data reinforced those concerns. National Bureau of Statistics figures showed industrial value-added growth eased to 4.5% year-on-year, 0.8 percentage points slower than the previous month. Retail sales rose 0.6%, down 0.4 percentage points from June, while January-July fixed-asset investment fell 6.7%, with the decline widening by 1 percentage point from the first half. Economists cited weather disruptions as a short-term factor, but argued weak effective demand remains the deeper issue. Luo Zhiheng, chief economist at Yuekai Securities, said sluggish household consumption and corporate investment appetite are constraining growth, while the macro team at Guolian Minsheng said investment funds appear to be accumulated but not yet deployed and that stabilization may not come before September. Policymakers are intensifying support, with Premier Li Qiang calling on August 17 for pragmatic and effective incremental policies, while authorities push major projects, special bond issuance and 800 billion yuan in new-type policy-based financial instruments. Analysts say the coming Golden September, Silver October period will be a key test of whether those measures gain traction.

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