TLT closes at lowest since June 2004 as 30-year Treasury yield hits 5.31%

The iShares 20+ Years Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) ended Monday at $81.35, its lowest close since June 14, 2004, as another rise in long-term Treasury yields deepened losses for investors betting the bond market had bottomed. The fund fell about 0.8% on the day and is down 6.6% year to date, its worst start to a year since the 2022 bond selloff, according to Dow Jones Market Data and FactSet. The pressure has come from higher yields, which move inversely to bond prices. The 30-year Treasury yield rose 4.5 basis points to 5.31%, its highest level since June 29, 2004, while the 10-year yield added 3 basis points to 4.725%, among the highest levels of the second Trump administration. Wells Fargo Investment Institute's Luis Alvarado said the long end is being squeezed by two overlapping forces: wider federal deficits, which require more Treasury issuance, and aggressive borrowing tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure. He said Treasurys and corporate bonds are competing for the same income-oriented long-term investors. That competition has shown up in pricing, with Alphabet Inc. selling 30-year bonds due in August 2056 at a yield of nearly 6.4%, more than a full percentage point above comparable U.S. Treasury debt. Even so, BlackRock data show TLT drew $6.4 billion in net inflows in the third quarter, suggesting some investors are using lower prices to add duration (sensitivity to interest rates) or diversify fixed-income holdings. Analysts say long-bond trading is increasingly being driven by fiscal supply and corporate funding demand rather than Federal Reserve policy alone, even as softer inflation data has reduced concern about a September rate increase.

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TLT closes at lowest since June 2004 as 30-year Treasury yield hits 5.31% - CoinPost Terminal