Iceland will vote on August 29 on whether to reopen European Union accession negotiations in a closely divided referendum that could influence the bloc’s wider enlargement debate. A yes vote would not determine membership: it would trigger at least two years of talks with Brussels, followed by a possible second referendum, potentially in 2028, and ratification by all 27 EU member states. A Gallup poll this month found 46% support for restarting talks, 46% opposition and 8% undecided, while other polls show a majority against full membership. Supporters say EU membership could improve Iceland’s leverage with larger trading partners, help address high living costs and inflation, potentially allow adoption of the euro, and strengthen the country’s position amid Arctic rivalry and uncertainty over U.S. policy. Opponents say membership would transfer authority to Brussels and expose Iceland’s fisheries to the EU’s Common Fisheries Policy, potentially allowing foreign vessels into Icelandic waters. Iceland abandoned earlier accession talks in 2013 after applying in 2009, but rising living costs, Russia’s war in Ukraine and changing Arctic security concerns have revived the issue. The centre-left coalition formed in 2024 agreed to hold the referendum at the initiative of the pro-EU Vidreisn party. The vote also matters to the EU because Iceland is a wealthy NATO member already linked to the single market through the European Economic Area and occupies a strategically important position in the GIUK gap, making it a comparatively straightforward potential addition to the bloc.