VanEck said eight of its 12 Bitcoin capitulation signals remained active in its mid-August Bitcoin ChainCheck after the token fell 49% from its October 2025 peak, with all 12 having entered trigger territory at least once over the prior three months. The asset manager said the readings show heavy market stress across price drawdowns, miner finances and the share of holders sitting on unrealized losses, but do not confirm that Bitcoin has reached a final low. Since then, Bitcoin has pushed above its multi-month range near $62,000 to $64,000 and traded at $69,081 at the time of writing, up 7.02%, with market watchers pointing to improving on-chain demand, renewed net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and a weaker dollar backdrop as factors supporting sentiment. Apparent demand turned positive for the first time since February 2026 at roughly 25,000 BTC, while the MVRV Z-score was cited at 0.53, a level described as neutral and consistent with prices being supported by aggregate holder cost basis. VanEck's backtest found no unusual return advantage over the following three or six months when eight to 12 signals were active. Bitcoin gained an average of 12.8% over the next 90 days in those periods versus 15.2% across comparable 90-day periods overall, while the 180-day average was 32% versus a broader 36.3%. The firm said the framework showed relative outperformance only over a one-year horizon and should be used mainly to judge cycle position rather than pinpoint a near-term bottom. Analysts tracking the rebound said Bitcoin has flipped resistance above $65,000 into support, with the next major resistance seen around $71,300 to $71,500 near the 200-day moving average, followed by a broader macro hurdle at $75,000 to $76,638. Market participants are also watching Federal Reserve rate decisions, the September CLARITY Act vote and developments in the Middle East as potential drivers of risk appetite and institutional sentiment.