Dollar/yen slips to 159.43 as weak U.S. data reinforces Fed rate-cut bets

Dollar/yen fell in New York trading on the 18th, ending at 159.43 from 159.72, as a run of weaker-than-expected U.S. data strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could have more room to cut interest rates. July import prices fell 0.4% month over month against expectations for a 0.1% rise, marking a second straight decline, while June was revised to a 0.3% drop from a previously reported 0.3% increase. Housing data also pointed to near-term softness: July housing starts dropped 12.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.239 million, well below the 1.345 million consensus and the lowest since May 2020, though building permits rose 5.0% to 1.443 million, topping the 1.375 million forecast and signaling possible recovery ahead. The New York Fed (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) August services activity index slowed to 0.5 from 8.7 in July and missed the 4.6 consensus, adding to pressure on the dollar as yields fell. Elsewhere, euro/dollar dipped to $1.1571 before closing at $1.1588, supported by a sharp improvement in Germany's August ZEW expectations index. Euro/yen rose to 184.90 before ending at 184.71, pound/dollar climbed to $1.3551 from $1.3524, and dollar/Swiss franc touched 0.8131 francs before easing to 0.8112. Additional data showed ADP employment for the week of August 1 rose by 9,500 from 8,250, July industrial production increased 0.2% versus a 0.3% consensus, capacity utilization was 76.3%, and the pending home sales index fell 2.3%, extending June's 4.8% decline. The overall picture suggested the U.S. housing market remains under pressure from high rates, while softer import prices point to ongoing disinflation, leaving the dollar capped as rate-cut expectations stay firmly embedded.

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