Alaska voters are casting primary ballots in a 17-candidate race to replace term-limited Governor Mike Dunleavy. The state’s nonpartisan primary sends the top four finishers to the November general election, which will use ranked-choice voting. Kalshi markets give Tom Begich a 98% chance of advancing, followed by Republican conservative media personality Bernadette Wilson at 97% and Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins at 87%. Former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson has a 57% chance, while former Alaska Attorney General Treg Taylor and former state senator Click Bishop have odds of 29% and 17%, respectively. Democrats have a 51% chance of flipping the governor’s seat, according to the markets. The primary is taking place alongside the contest for Alaska’s at-large House seat, where Independent Bill Hill advanced with incumbent Republican Rep. Nick Begich III under the same top-four framework, according to a Decision Desk HQ projection.