China's 10-year government bond yield fell to 1.67% on August 18, its lowest since July 2025, as investors increased bets on further policy easing after weaker-than-expected July economic data. The move leaves the yield 7 basis points lower over the past month and 11 basis points below a year earlier. Industrial production, retail sales and fixed-asset investment all missed consensus expectations, while growth estimates slipped below the government's 4.5% to 5.0% target range. Premier Li Qiang called for stronger policy support, and the People's Bank of China (China's central bank) added 349 billion yuan, or about $51.7 billion, through an overnight reverse repo (short-term liquidity operation) on August 15. Longer-dated Chinese yields have continued to decline even as the U.S. 10-year Treasury held near 4.72%, creating a roughly 305-basis-point gap that highlights diverging policy expectations and adds downward pressure on the yuan. Attention is now turning to the National People's Congress Standing Committee session on August 25-28, where markets are watching for additional fiscal or monetary support.