Polymarket bettors have reduced the implied probability that Bitcoin will exceed $100,000 by Dec. 31, 2026, to 8%, down from 92% in January and 50% in May. The Polygon-based market assigns less than a 15% chance of Bitcoin reaching $90,000 this year, a 31% chance of topping $80,000 and a 76% chance of falling below $60,000, with about $53.75 million wagered. Against that cautious backdrop, SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci said in an Aug. 18 CNBC interview that Bitcoin will rise back above $100,000 ahead of the next halving, projected for the first half of 2028. The event will cut the block subsidy from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC, reducing the rate of new supply. Historical halvings have preceded major rallies, but timing and magnitude have varied, while regulatory uncertainty, macroeconomic conditions, investor sentiment and questions about the traditional four-year cycle remain risks.