Swiss franc strengthens as dollar weakness and safe-haven demand offset yen rotation

The Swiss franc strengthened to around $0.798, its highest level in two months, as increased U.S. Treasury bond buybacks helped contain borrowing costs and reduced demand for the dollar. Renewed concerns about U.S. government debt, Treasury auctions, credit-rating comments and the fiscal deficit also encouraged safe-haven flows into the franc. The U.S. national debt recently surpassed $34 trillion, while the Congressional Budget Office projects elevated deficits over the next decade, and markets are weighing possible Federal Reserve rate cuts against the widening fiscal gap. At the same time, investors are reconsidering yen-funded carry trades after rare U.S.-Japanese intervention to support the yen, Japanese rate-hike expectations and speculation that Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund could increase domestic allocations. Some traders may shift short-yen positions into the franc or other relatively weaker safe-haven currencies, potentially limiting the franc's gains and easing pressure on Switzerland's export sector. The franc remains 12% stronger against the euro than five years ago, supported by Switzerland's persistent current-account surplus, sound public finances, low inflation and safe-haven inflows. It had softened to around 0.9385 per euro, about 4% below March's 11-year peak near 0.9, and Rabobank raised its nine- to 12-month euro/Swiss target to 0.95 from 0.94. The Swiss National Bank held its policy rate at 0%, prefers foreign-exchange intervention to prevent excessive appreciation and is expected to keep rates unchanged through 2027. Most economists expect a first hike in early 2028, although markets are pricing one as early as March 2027, which could make the franc a more attractive funding currency for carry trades.

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