Germany’s 30-year bond yield hits 3.79% as debt supply and inflation risks mount

Germany’s 30-year government bond yield reached 3.79%, its highest level since 2011, after earlier reports put the intraday peak at 3.787%, while the 10-year Bund yield briefly reached 3.275%, a 15-year high, and remained near 3.25%, close to its highest level since March 2011. Investors weighed record and rising government-bond supply, increased defense and infrastructure spending, fiscal deficits, inflation, higher energy costs and concerns about sovereign-debt sustainability. The eurozone’s benchmark issuer sold a 30-year bond at the highest yield in 15 years, French 10-year yields approached an 18-year high near 5%, and Italy’s 10-year yield rose above 4.1%, a level not seen since March. Eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.9% in July, above the European Central Bank’s 2% target, while Brent crude traded above $92 a barrel and European natural gas reached its highest level since January 2023 amid Middle East-related supply disruptions. Commerzbank expects German gross bond supply to reach a record €400 billion ($468 billion) in 2027, up from €349 billion this year, and Barclays forecasts record eurozone gross supply of €1.54 trillion next year. The ECB is allowing maturing bond holdings to run off without reinvestment, increasing the amount of debt private investors must absorb. US Treasury buybacks briefly supported longer-dated bonds, but their effect faded, leaving global fixed-income markets under pressure.

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