Eurozone core HICP holds at 2.5% in July, keeping ECB cautious

Preliminary Eurostat data showed Eurozone core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices holding at 2.5% year-on-year in July, matching market forecasts and the previous month’s rate. The reading points to sticky underlying price pressures even as lower energy costs may ease headline inflation, with services inflation remaining elevated and goods inflation moderating. The result leaves the European Central Bank on a cautious, data-dependent path as it balances inflation control against a fragile economic recovery. Markets widely expect the ECB to hold interest rates at its September meeting, although a sustained rise in core prices could prompt further action. The latest preliminary figure differs from previously reported final July data showing core HICP at 2.9%; the discrepancy should be treated as a revision or difference between releases until reconciled. Earlier data also showed headline annual HICP at 2.6% in July, up from 2.5% in June and below May’s 2.7%, while services inflation eased to 4.0% from 4.1%. Investors will watch wage growth, the ECB’s September projections, subsequent inflation figures and US economic data for clues on interest rates, bond yields and the euro.

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