Nomura analysts expect Sweden’s Riksbank to keep its policy rate at 1.75% until an initial rate increase in early 2027, revising expectations for a longer pause than some market participants had anticipated. The forecast contrasts with earlier market pricing of roughly a 50% chance of a 25-basis-point hike in the fourth quarter of 2026 and the Riksbank’s previous indication that a rate increase later in 2026 remained possible if inflation rose sharply. The Riksbank has held the rate since March 2026 after three cuts in 2025, while CPIF inflation stood at 0.7% in July 2026. Nomura’s outlook suggests the easing cycle has ended but that policymakers will remain data-dependent as they assess inflation, economic growth and energy and commodity-price pressures linked to supply disruptions associated with the Iran conflict. A later hike could support the Swedish krona by improving interest-rate differentials against the euro and U.S. dollar, while prolonged rates at current levels would continue to influence borrowing costs, bond yields and valuations in rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate and utilities. Investors will watch Swedish economic data and the Riksbank’s Aug. 19, 2026, policy meeting and Monetary Policy Update for confirmation or rejection of the forecast.