Japan’s average retail rice price fell ¥29 from the previous week to ¥3,191 per 5 kilograms during Aug. 10-16, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF), marking the first decline in two weeks and the first drop below ¥3,200 in that period. Brand-name rice, including Koshihikari, fell ¥44 to ¥3,211 and accounts for 83% of sales volume, driving the overall decline. Blended rice and retailers’ private-brand products rose ¥15 to ¥3,094 as price-sensitive consumers shifted toward cheaper options. The market is under pressure from record private inventories of 2.43 million tons at the end of June, bearish three-month price expectations and efforts by wholesalers and retailers to clear stocks before the 2026 harvest reaches full circulation. Lower JA advance payments to farmers, known as gai-san-kin, are also expected to weigh on new-crop prices because they serve as a benchmark for transactions. At the same time, rice sales volumes have begun to recover as affordability improves. The latest move follows an earlier survey average of ¥3,198, which had already fallen into the ¥3,100 range for the first time in about one year and 10 months. The key market question is whether rising new-crop supply will outpace recovering demand and push prices lower.