Fed minutes to show 9-3 split over rates at 3.5%-3.75%

Markets are awaiting today’s minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s July 28-29 meeting for greater detail on the Fed’s 9-3 decision to keep interest rates at 3.5%-3.75%. Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie K. Logan dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point rate increase, citing inflation that remains above the Fed’s 2% target and price pressures including higher energy costs. The minutes may show whether some of the nine officials who backed unchanged rates also favored tighter policy but preferred to wait for more economic data. That could keep a September hike under consideration. The Fed is using a meeting-by-meeting approach, making upcoming jobs and inflation reports especially important. Markets now price a 32.8% chance of a September hike and a 67.2% chance of unchanged rates, down from roughly 60% for a hike after the July meeting. A weaker U.S. jobs report and signs of labor-market cooling have contributed to the shift. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for 16 September.

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