TSMC capex seen reaching $80 billion-$85 billion in 2027 as AI demand grows

Bank of America estimates that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) could raise 2027 capital expenditure to $80 billion-$85 billion, above its previous $78 billion forecast and the $75 billion market consensus, if annual capital appropriation growth remains at 40%-45%. The bank maintains its Buy rating and NT$3,100 target price, citing TSMC's technology leadership and robust AI demand. TSMC closed at NT$2,350 on the 19th, equivalent to about 17 times estimated 2027 earnings and within its historical long-term valuation range of 11 to 21 times. The board has approved $29 billion for advanced front-end and back-end processes, while 2026 capital expenditure is expected to reach the $62 billion midpoint of official guidance. TSMC's Arizona fab generated NT$45 billion in second-quarter revenue, up 17% quarter-over-quarter and 145% year-over-year, and recorded a 38% net margin excluding government subsidies. Depreciation is expected to grow at an approximately 20% compound annual rate from 2026 to 2028, but strong high-performance computing demand and high-end mobile chips could keep gross margin near 70%.

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