Former U.S. ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro said the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict is at a stalemate and argued that President Donald Trump misjudged the situation from the start. The conflict began with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and centers on control of the Strait of Hormuz. Mediators including Qatar, Oman, and Pakistan have been involved, but there has been no lasting ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough. Shapiro’s comments, made in an interview with CNBC, come as potential peace talks remain uncertain. Prediction-market pricing suggests limited confidence that a diplomatic meeting will take place in the UAE by September 30, 2026. Observers are watching for announcements from the U.S. and Iranian governments, mediator statements, or confirmation of a meeting location, all of which could affect market expectations. Continued stalemate may further influence sentiment about the prospects for successful diplomacy.