South Africa inflation slows to 4.3% in July as fuel prices fall

South Africa’s annual consumer inflation eased to 4.3% in July from 4.4% in June, below the 4.5% market forecast, according to Statistics South Africa. The reading remained within the South African Reserve Bank’s 3%-6% target range and near its midpoint, reinforcing expectations that the bank will keep its repo rate at 8.25% at its September meeting. Monthly prices rose 0.4%, driven mainly by housing, utilities and transport, while food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation stayed subdued and fuel prices fell slightly from the previous month. Core inflation, which excludes food, fuel and electricity, remained sticky at 4.6%, limiting the case for early easing. The softer reading may support the rand by reducing pressure for further rate increases, but future policy will depend on food and energy prices, the currency and whether disinflation continues. An earlier version of the record reported different June and monthly inflation figures, as well as larger fuel-price declines; those figures are retained in the detailed account as a discrepancy in the supplied records.

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