JPMorgan says Treasury buybacks offer temporary relief as deficit hits 6% of GDP

The U.S. Treasury’s plan to at least double its bond buybacks may lower long-term yields only temporarily, JPMorgan said, because it does not address the federal deficit, which is running at about 6% of gross domestic product despite an economy near full employment. The Treasury’s announcement drove the 30-year Treasury yield down 9 basis points to 5.19%. JPMorgan strategists including Jay Barry said the move could lack credibility without fiscal consolidation and warned that efforts to suppress long-term yields through more flexible debt management could eventually increase the term premium (extra return demanded for long-term bond risk) and Treasury yields. JPMorgan expects a funding gap of more than $3.5 trillion in the coming fiscal year, limiting the government’s ability to reduce long-dated bond issuance. Citigroup took a more constructive view, recommending 20-year Treasuries and saying easing inflation could help the U.S. bond market rebound strongly in the coming months.

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