More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have placed trades based on non-public United States military information, research finds

The Anti-Corruption Data Collective’s Classifying Insider Trading Risk report examined 78,496 longshot Polymarket bets across 12,355 wallets and labeled 556 concentrated high-success accounts “Orcas,” alongside thousands of Whales, Bots, and Small Fish. Orcas bet in only a handful of markets yet won more than 75% of the time, while a military-focused cohort of 152 wallets earlier tied to about $8 million in profits and a 97.2% win rate remains central to insider-trading and national-security concerns. ACDC tallied $9.3 million in winning military longshot bets, described Orca-led flow that Whales and Bots copy on the public blockchain—including ahead of the June 2025 U.S. strikes on Iran—and argued that banning the highest-risk market categories is the only workable fix. Separate pressure is rising from a Bubblemaps analysis of nine linked Iran-war accounts, Justice Department cases against an Army soldier and a Google engineer, Haaretz political-betting reporting, academic work on short-duration Bitcoin contracts, and CFTC mention-market scrutiny that already pushed Kalshi to suspend related sports products.

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