The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI), a forward-looking measure of economic activity, rose 0.2% in July to 99.5 after a revised 0.1% decline in June. The increase was the fourth in six months and exceeded expectations for a flat reading, while all components except consumer expectations improved, suggesting that moderate growth could be emerging. Its six-month annualized growth rate reached 0.2% for January through July, turning positive for the first time in more than four years; the measure was last positive sometime in early 2022. The Coincident Economic Index increased 0.2% to 114.8, while the Lagging Index also rose 0.2% to 120.4. Conference Board Senior Manager Justyna Zabinska-La Monica identified jobless claims and building permits as the main drivers of July’s improvement, partially offsetting continued weakness in consumer expectations. Persistent pressure from rising living costs remains a concern because consumer spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of US economic activity. The Conference Board projects 1.9% real GDP growth in both 2026 and 2027, with AI-related business investment supporting expansion while financially stretched consumers weigh on demand. The next LEI release is scheduled for September 18.