Bitcoin climbs 3.26% to $71,556 as prediction markets turn cautious

Bitcoin traded at $71,556 on Thursday, up 3.26% for the day within a $68,858-$72,408 range, extending Wednesday’s 8.7% rally. The move marked Bitcoin’s sharpest rally in five months, Wednesday’s strongest one-day gain since March 4 and its highest price since June 1, as bulls attempted to break a bearish trend that had lasted for months. Prediction markets (platforms that turn crowd bets into live odds) have become more divided. On Myriad, a market operated by Dastan, the parent company of Decrypt, the odds of Bitcoin reaching $84,000 versus falling to $55,000 shifted from roughly 70% favoring the decline days earlier to about 52% for the bullish outcome and 48% for the bearish one. Polymarket’s flagship 2026 price market last week showed a 56% chance that Bitcoin would touch $55,000 before year-end and 51% odds of reaching $75,000. On Kalshi, traders assigned Bitcoin a 54% chance of clearing $67,500 in August and a 31% chance of reaching $70,000, levels the rally exceeded Wednesday. A separate Polymarket contract priced a 47% chance of Bitcoin trading above $75,000 in August, with roughly $12 million in volume. The next technical level is $70,284, the lower edge of a resistance band (a price zone where selling may increase); a daily close above it could open a path toward $73,245, while a drop below $68,000 could return Bitcoin to the range that has confined it since June. That wedge preceded crashes in October 2025 and January 2026. Myriad’s market resolves when Binance’s BTC/USDT spot price touches either $84,000 or $55,000, rather than on a calendar date. Despite the two-day rally, the current Myriad odds point to cautious optimism at best.

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