The implied probability of Iran fully closing its airspace by August 31 has declined to 3.6% from 4%, according to the latest market update, after an earlier reading put the odds at 4.1%. The move followed the observed deployment of U.S. Air Force F-15 fighter jets over the Middle East under U.S. Central Command, part of a broader effort to reinforce regional airpower and deter potential Iranian military action. The deployment reflects heightened readiness rather than routine patrols and comes alongside increased air and drone task-force activity. The U.S.-Iran conflict, which escalated earlier this year, remains deadlocked, with no direct talks and continued military pressure through blockades and strike operations. Market participants will watch statements from the Civil Aviation Organization of Iran and Iranian State Television, flight activity, further U.S. deployments and diplomatic engagement for signs that could change airspace-closure expectations.