UK retail sales excluding fuel fall 0.9% in July 2026, missing market forecasts

UK retail sales volumes excluding fuel fell 0.9% month-on-month in July 2026, missing market expectations of a 0.5% decline and reversing a revised 0.5% increase in June, in Office for National Statistics figures that signal slower consumer spending. The pullback was broad-based, with notable weakness at department stores and household goods retailers and a dip at food stores, a sharper contraction than economists had forecast and one that raises concerns about household resilience amid persistent cost-of-living pressures and higher interest rates. Weaker demand could influence the Bank of England’s monetary policy stance if it helps cool inflationary pressures, and analysts will watch for further third-quarter slowdown signs as global uncertainty and domestic fiscal challenges weigh on the outlook. Earlier accounts of the same July 2026 release had put the fall in overall retail sales volumes at 0.5%, matching forecasts, after a downwardly revised 0.7% June rise tied to heatwave demand, promotions and the World Cup, with food stores then reported higher rather than lower. That earlier picture showed annual growth slowing to 1.6% from a revised 3.8%, clothing and footwear down 2.7%, online sales values off 3.9% and the online share of retail at 28.3%, while three-month volumes still looked resilient and sterling was little moved. Economists and retailers had framed a milder July dip as a pause, with consumer confidence later reaching a two-year high in August, though warnings persisted that energy-price and budget headwinds could intensify before Christmas.

The information on this website is generated using AI and we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Please use it as reference information only.