South Korean birth statistics, BOK rate decision and Nvidia earnings loom as PCE data and Jackson Hole approach

Markets this week focus on South Korea's finalized 2025 birth statistics, released by Statistics Korea on the 26th, after the total fertility rate fell to a record low of 0.72 in 2023 before rebounding to 0.75 in 2024 and the preliminary 2025 figure came in at 0.80. The same day the June demographic trends report will show monthly birth changes. On the 27th the second-quarter household trends survey is due, with first-quarter average monthly household income at 5.48 million won, up 2.4% year-on-year, and consumption spending at 3.11 million won, up 5.3%. That day the Bank of Korea holds its rate decision, after raising rates 0.25 percentage points last month for the first time in three and a half years, and releases its revised economic outlook. Analysts expect the bank to lift its 2025 real GDP growth forecast further to the low 3% range from the May projection of 2.6%. Nvidia reports second-quarter results for fiscal 2027 on the 26th local time, with Wall Street expecting a record $95 billion in revenue after first-quarter sales of $81.62 billion beat estimates by $2.5 billion. Core PCE for July is forecast to rise 3.3% from a year earlier. Separately the Federal Reserve holds its Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming with Chair Kevin Warsh delivering the keynote address.

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