UBS updates global equity outlook, upgrades Taiwan and lifts S&P 500 target

UBS Switzerland AG maintained its June 2027 target of 1,920 for the MSCI EM Index and upgraded Taiwan to Attractive from Neutral in a report released Friday. The index stood at 1,668 on Wednesday, while UBS set its December 2026 target at 1,850. UBS expects emerging-market equities to deliver earnings-per-share growth of 62% this year and 18% next year, with Taiwan’s earnings projected to grow roughly 40% in both 2026 and 2027 as AI-driven demand, semiconductor pricing and margin expansion support the technology supply chain. UBS Global Wealth Management raised its S&P 500 year-end target to 8,100 on Aug. 21, implying roughly 6% upside from Thursday’s close of 7,641.16 points, and lifted its mid-2027 target to 8,400 from 8,200. It maintained an Attractive view on U.S. equities and raised its S&P 500 earnings-per-share forecasts to $350 for 2026 and $400 for 2027, from $335 and $375. UBS cited resilient economic growth, supportive monetary policy and AI adoption as pillars supporting the U.S. bull market. About 40% of MSCI EM companies had reported earnings, with 43% exceeding expectations, aggregate earnings growth tracking 57% year over year and revisions broadly positive. UBS retained Attractive ratings on mainland China, India and Malaysia, while rating Brazil, Thailand, the Philippines, Mexico, South Africa, Indonesia and South Korea Neutral. Risks include prolonged dollar strength, disruption to the AI investment cycle and a sharp slowdown in corporate spending.

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