Bitcoin rises to $79,200 as analysts debate whether the bear market is ending

Bitcoin climbed to $79,200 on Friday morning before retreating to $77,500, prompting contrasting assessments of whether the move signals the end of the bear market. Mati Greenspan, a former senior eToro market analyst and founder at Quantum Economics, said Bitcoin has shown "nice momentum these last few days" and that the pattern is generally what bottoms look like. He said a short squeeze, a large upward price candle and breaks above technical levels could trigger fear of missing out among investors who had been waiting for Bitcoin to fall to $40,000. Greenspan said another drawdown remains possible but that he would not count on it, arguing that the odds of a significant pullback appear slim. Jason Fernandes, a market analyst and co-founder at AdLunam, urged caution, saying the bear market should not be declared over without sustained spot ETF inflows and clear macroeconomic rate easing. He warned Bitcoin could lose momentum at overhead resistance. Both analysts pointed to supportive macro and policy factors, including White House discussions of Bitcoin Treasury operations, U.S. Congress work on market-structure legislation, steps by the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission, the U.S. securities regulator) and CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the U.S. derivatives regulator) toward greater regulatory clarity and adoption, and the U.S. Treasury's decision to double bond buybacks to $4 billion. Fernandes said lower long-term yields supported risk assets, while months of trading below $64,000 to $66,000 enabled aggressive short positioning to build. The subsequent move above $66,000 and the 200-day moving average triggered liquidations of derivative short sellers and algorithmic trend-following purchases. LO:TECH lead researcher Adam Morgan McCarthy said more than half of Wednesday's 7.1% gain occurred within one hour and represented about a third of the day's volume, a pattern he described as the signature of a short squeeze.

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