Iran’s military leadership has warned that any enemy assault would trigger a devastating response, while the acting defense minister reiterated that Iran would not permit an invasion. The statements come amid ongoing military exchanges involving Iran, the United States and Israel, and as diplomatic negotiations between Washington and Tehran reportedly remain stalled. The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical flashpoint. Prediction-market pricing puts the probability of a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027 at 16.5%, down from 18%, suggesting that the rhetoric is being interpreted as heightened defensive posturing rather than evidence of an immediate invasion. Further diplomatic activity, military action in the Strait, ceasefire agreements, negotiations and statements by military or political leaders could shift both market sentiment and invasion odds, with implications for regional stability.