Carlos Alcaraz is favored in prediction markets to win the US Open men’s singles title, with Kalshi traders assigning him a 34% probability, ahead of Alexander Zverev at 21%. A separate Polymarket market reported by Catcher Predict rose to 39.5% from 24.5% an hour earlier, a 15% fluctuation potentially linked to breaking news. Alcaraz will defend his title after recovering from a right wrist injury, while Jannik Sinner, whom he defeated in last year’s final, has withdrawn with a knee injury. Catcher Predict also reported a separate sharp move in the Cincinnati Open market, with Sara Bejlek’s probability against Madison Keys rising to 82.5% from 19.5%. In Kalshi’s women’s market, Aryna Sabalenka leads at 21%, followed by Iga Swiatek at 17%.