Russia rejected a Ukrainian proposal for a mutual halt to attacks on civilian shipping and grain-export infrastructure in the Black Sea, as reciprocal strikes threaten agricultural trade, energy routes and global wheat supplies. Ukraine transmitted the offer through a third party on Aug. 13, and Russia rejected it the following day. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Aug. 23 that Russian President Vladimir Putin had personally rejected the proposal. Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said there were “no grounds for half-measures” and ruled out reviving the Black Sea Grain Initiative, brokered by Turkey and the United Nations in 2022 before Russia withdrew in July 2023. The Kremlin said on Aug. 24 that Russia was developing measures to ensure grain intended for export is shipped on time and in full. Sovecon expects Russian grain exports to rise to 2.2 million metric tons in August from 1.95 million in July, while Putin estimated that Russia would have about 60 million tons available for export during the current season. Ukrainian grain exports through Black Sea routes were down 76% year-on-year as of early August 2026. Attacks by both countries have shuttered terminals and delayed or canceled loadings for dozens of cargoes, while a Ukrainian strike on Aug. 12 suspended operations at Russian grain terminals in Novorossiysk near critical energy infrastructure. Russia has also attacked Ukrainian ports, including a July strike on a Turkish-flagged vessel that killed 10 sailors. Putin has threatened retaliation against Ukraine’s “most sensitive economic sectors,” while Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has proposed a moratorium on military operations in the Black Sea. Prediction markets indicate a 15% expected move tied to the likelihood of Russian forces entering Sloviansk, reflecting possible escalation rather than a confirmed battlefield development.