U.S. President Donald Trump posted a map on Truth Social labeling the Strait of Hormuz as “new US territory,” an apparent rhetorical escalation amid tensions with Iran over the strategic waterway. The strait is internationally recognized under maritime law as a navigational passage, not U.S. territory, so the post does not change its legal status. Market pricing puts the probability of a U.S.-Iran agreement by August 31 at 2.9% YES, suggesting diminished expectations for a resolution and possible complications for diplomacy over passage through Hormuz. With nine days remaining until the deadline, traders are watching for statements from Trump or Iranian officials, a ceasefire extension, confirmation of unrestricted shipping, renewed military activity or a breakdown in talks. The material offers live prediction-market analysis powered by Vera and invites users to sign up for the service.