The Bank of Korea is widely expected to raise its economic growth forecast for this year into the 3% range in its Aug. 27 economic outlook after repeatedly underestimating South Korea’s recovery. The central bank projected 2.0% growth in February and 2.6% in May, but first-quarter GDP grew 1.8% quarter-on-quarter and second-quarter GDP expanded 0.6%, exceeding its forecasts of 0.9% and 0.2%, respectively. The main gap came from an AI-driven semiconductor boom that lifted exports and facility investment, while construction investment contracted. A survey of 14 domestic and international experts found every respondent expecting growth above 3.0% this year, with forecasts concentrated between 3.2% and 3.4%. Experts also see core inflation exceeding the BOK’s May forecast of 2.4%, while most expect next year’s growth to slow to 2.3%-2.5%. Repeated forecast errors, including misses in 2024, have intensified criticism that the BOK is producing lagging forecasts and prompted calls for stronger semiconductor expertise as its outlook informs monetary-policy decisions.