Market pricing shows falling confidence in a US-Iran agreement to restore normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with Polymarket odds for an agreement by August 31 dropping to 2.5% from 3% over the previous 24 hours. The shift followed statements from President Donald Trump and Iranian military official Mohsen Rezaei. Trump described the strategic waterway as new US territory on Truth Social, while Rezaei said it would remain closed until the United States alters its behavior. The continued closure could affect global oil shipments and deepen geopolitical and economic risks. U.S. Central Command and Iranian maritime authorities remain key actors, while further diplomatic communications, military activity, a formal ceasefire or a joint statement could move market expectations. Markets are also watching August 31 and September 16 deadlines.