Countries affected by conflict produced about 45 million barrels per day based on 2025 output, representing more than 43% of global oil supply in 2026, according to Reuters calculations using International Energy Agency data. Six months after U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran triggered what Reuters describes as the largest oil supply crisis on record, Gulf disruption is estimated at 5 million to 7 million barrels per day. Strait of Hormuz traffic has nevertheless rebounded: UK Maritime Trade Operations recorded nearly 200 vessel transits last week, versus 150 the previous week and about 40 two weeks earlier, although flows remain below normal and product tankers are largely staying away. TotalEnergies Chief Executive Patrick Pouyanne said Iraqi and Qatari crude is moving quietly at freight costs near $10 a barrel, while refined-product shipping premiums have reached about $50. Gulf discounts, Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, reduced global refining capacity and declining inventories are creating a bearish crude market alongside a bullish fuels market.