The Bank of Japan (Japan’s central bank) is expected to face several opportunities to influence market expectations for a September rate hike, which is currently priced at an estimated 82% probability. The bank’s governor has stressed the need for stronger communication with markets since the July 2024 rate increase drew heavy criticism. The yen is another key factor that could prompt the Bank of Japan to signal its policy intentions. Kento Minami, a senior economist at Daiwa Securities, said officials may avoid explicitly committing to a September increase and instead emphasize upside risks to inflation, which markets could interpret as support for an earlier hike. By contrast, repeated references to uncertainty, the need to monitor further data, or the need to assess the effects of the previous increase could be read as a signal that rates will remain unchanged in September.