The Australian dollar’s outlook has varied across separate reporting periods tied to Reserve Bank of Australia communications, inflation data and US dollar moves. After the RBA’s February 18, 2025 minutes, one account had AUD/USD narrowly around 0.6350 as policymakers held rates and sought more evidence inflation was easing sustainably, while a separate account of the February minutes described a more hawkish-than-expected tone in which the board considered another rate hike before holding, flagged uneven disinflation and significant risks of inflation staying above the target band, prompting markets to pare near-term cut bets as AUD/USD broke above key resistance with a softer dollar. On February 28, 2025, after January CPI matched forecasts at 3.4% year-on-year and trimmed mean inflation ran at 3.8%, the currency held steady near $0.6500 as ING said the RBA’s hold bias would persist with the cash rate expected to stay at 4.35% at the March 18 meeting and markets pricing roughly a 50% chance of a cut by August 2025. In later reports the pair reached nearly 0.6700 before pulling back to about 0.6650 ahead of April 1 meeting minutes, when the cash rate was 4.10%. In another period it steadied around 0.6800 on Tuesday after minutes signaled a hawkish tilt, with further cash-rate increases discussed amid sticky services inflation, a tight labour market and upside inflation risks, while a 0.2% drop in the dollar index in Asia added support. More recently it held above $0.71 near an eleven-week high as August minutes judged the 4.35% cash rate sufficiently restrictive, though several members still saw persistent-inflation risk; weak jobs data later cut the priced chance of a September hike to about 13%. Across the reports, traders have watched CPI prints, labour-market and services inflation data, US dollar moves, commodities and Chinese demand, while upside has been tempered by China growth and geopolitical concerns.