Polymarket traders assign an approximately 83.5% probability to the CLARITY Act not becoming law in 2026. The event has accumulated a $9,129,300 pool and is among the platform’s most actively traded markets. A new account, 0xf53e7cc2894cba22dcdc40de936513a502ef16e3, bought about $825,000 in No shares across two transactions at 78 cents and 77 cents, receiving approximately 1.0529 million shares. Under the market rules, the contract settles Yes only if the CLARITY Act passes both chambers of the U.S. Congress and is signed by the president by 11:59 p.m. Eastern time on Dec. 31, 2026; otherwise, it settles No.