Trump’s Iran campaign puts China’s energy ties and September summit at risk

President Trump’s announced economic warfare campaign against Iran is also targeting China, Tehran’s largest trading partner and main buyer of its oil exports. Trump has threatened action against any country, business or bank supporting Iran after diplomatic efforts unraveled, six months of military pressure failed to cow the Islamic republic and passage through the Strait of Hormuz remained dangerous. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged China to "get with the program," saying 50% of its energy comes from inside the Gulf, and said he would outline the administration’s plan at a press conference Monday. China rejected the threats, with Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian saying sanctions and pressure tactics are not the solution. Analysts including Craig Singleton, Jason Brodsky and Josh Lipsky questioned whether so-called economic "D-Day" would work without targeting major Chinese entities and financial channels, coordinating with Europe and securing cooperation from Chinese banks. They also warned that stronger action could trigger Chinese retaliation and endanger a Sept. 24 state visit by President Xi Jinping. Trump wants China to buy American agricultural products, Boeing jets and U.S. oil while maintaining U.S. access to critical minerals used in weapons production. Earlier U.S. sanctions against Chinese teapot refineries processing Iranian oil were rejected by Beijing, which told blacklisted refineries to disregard them. China’s Iranian oil imports fell below 800,000 barrels per day in June, a historic low reported by Reuters using Vortexa data. Beyond oil, Tehran depends on Chinese technology for its drone and missile programs. A March fact sheet from the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission said the United States had blacklisted 366 entities in China and Hong Kong for evading Iran sanctions, while front companies and small regional banks help move most renminbi proceeds from oil sales into the global financial system. China has incentives to see the conflict end quickly because of energy, inflation and supply-chain disruptions, but analyst Zhao Long said Beijing has few signals that it wants to intervene again and generally sees neither a particular responsibility nor a realistic possibility of becoming the primary mediator when it did not cause or join a war involving major military powers.

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