Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries, export terminals and maritime shipping have made Russian crude flows to India more volatile, prompting refiners to diversify into Middle Eastern, African and spot-market supplies. India, the world’s third-largest oil importer and a country that imports more than 80% of its crude needs, remains Moscow’s largest customer, but disruptions since March have increased concerns about supply availability and potential effects on global prices. Russian imports fell to about 1.14-1.24 million barrels per day in December 2025 amid sanctions on producers including Rosneft and Lukoil, then reached a record average of about 2.6 million bpd in June 2026, more than half of India’s total imports, before renewed export disruptions encouraged a broader purchasing strategy. OPEC and the International Energy Agency may affect the outlook through production or strategic-reserve decisions, while further geopolitical developments could influence crude pricing.