The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s National Activity Index fell to -0.08 in July 2026 from a revised +0.06 in June, missing market expectations of -0.05 and indicating that U.S. economic growth was running somewhat below its historical trend. The June figure was revised upward from an initially reported -0.02. The index’s three-month moving average declined to -0.04 from +0.01, pointing to weaker short-term momentum. Of the 85 indicators tracked, 40 made positive contributions and 45 made negative contributions in July; 37 improved from the previous month while 48 deteriorated. Weakness was concentrated in production- and employment-related measures. The reading remained well above the -0.70 level historically associated with recessionary contractions. The dollar came under modest pressure after the release, with dollar-yen falling from 159.10 yen to 158.96 yen, euro-dollar rising from $1.1662 to $1.1673 and GBP/USD advancing from $1.3631 to $1.3646. Investors are watching upcoming employment data and the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting for broader signals on growth and the timing of any Federal Reserve easing.