Prediction market traders are betting that the 10-year Treasury note yield will remain elevated or rise further in 2026, limiting the impact of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s efforts to stabilize the bond market. Kalshi traders see a 56% chance that the yield ends 2026 at or above 4.75%, but only a 27% chance that it finishes above 5%. The yield was about 4.70% at midday Monday. Polymarket traders assign two-in-three odds that it crosses 4.8% at some point in 2026, suggesting they believe the year’s high may not have been reached. Kalshi contracts are settled using U.S. Treasury data and had just over $16,500 in trading volume. Polymarket contracts are also resolved with official Treasury data. The wagers follow a global bond sell-off driven by concerns about potentially higher inflation amid the unresolved U.S.-Iran conflict, as well as the U.S. national debt surpassing $40 trillion. The Treasury Department responded by announcing it would double U.S. debt buybacks, but yields initially fell and then rose again. CNBC later reported that the Treasury might use its $1 trillion General Account to help finance the expanded buybacks, prompting another decline in yields. Traders are betting that this decline will also prove temporary. CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship involving customer acquisition and a minority investment.