Iran and Oman agreed on a temporary navigational corridor, coordinated mine-clearing operations and a revenue-sharing framework for the Strait of Hormuz, with inbound vessels using Iranian waters and outbound vessels using Omani waters. The Aug. 25-26 Tehran talks improved the outlook for reopening the strategic energy route, but full access remains conditional on U.S. commitments under a June 2026 memorandum of understanding. Kalshi traders price a 50% chance that traffic normalizes before April 1, 2027, 54% before July 1, 2027, and 68% before January 1, 2028. Oil prices and supply fears have eased, but only five commercial tankers crossed the strait on Tuesday versus a 10-day average of 15, while freight rates remain at record highs. The waterway normally carries about one-fifth of global oil and LNG shipments.