Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said the United States is considering escalated military action against Iran if diplomatic channels continue to stall, while President Donald Trump has declined to rule out ground-force deployments or the seizure of strategic locations. The statements come as Operation Epic Fury, launched on February 28, 2026, continues into its fifth month after reported U.S. strikes sharply reduced Iran’s theatre ballistic missile launches and caused significant naval losses. A prediction market tracking the likelihood of a U.S. military offensive against Iran by December 31, 2026, prices the event at 16.5%, up from 16% a day earlier. The campaign has expanded from missile, naval and air-defense targets to roughly 90 sites in a single July attack and about 170 targets over two days. The United States also rejected extending a temporary ceasefire and maintained a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil passes daily. Possible strikes on Iran’s designated nuclear sites and action involving Kharg Island remain among the scenarios described by U.S. officials, while observers watch for further military moves, diplomatic contacts and changes around the Strait.