Kalshi traders assign a 67% probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining its current interest rate at the upcoming September meeting, while separate pricing puts the probability of the central bank’s next rate hike occurring before 2027 at 60%. The effective federal funds rate is 3.63%, and the upper limit of the target range is 3.75%. Across Fed decisions from June through September, markets assign a 69.5% probability to a "Pause–Pause–Pause" outcome, compared with 0.9% for "Pause–Pause–Cut," indicating limited expectations for a near-term rate reduction. Inflation, employment data, geopolitical developments and comments from Chairman Kevin Warsh could change those probabilities.