Gold spot prices rose to $4,525 per ounce on August 19, surpassing JPMorgan Global Research’s July 3 Q4 2026 target of $4,500 after the bank cut it from $6,000. JPMorgan also reduced its Q3 forecast to $4,300, citing softer demand from key buying sectors and the possibility that the Federal Reserve could raise rates earlier if inflation remains elevated. Prices had traded between $4,170 and $4,400 through most of July and into mid-August before moving higher, partly in response to US Treasury actions and changing expectations for the Federal Reserve’s rate path. The conflicting JPMorgan forecasts underscore the uncertainty facing gold: an August 13 note retained a $6,000 Q4 target, while setting a full-year 2026 average of $5,243 and a 2027 average of $6,263. Investors are watching the annual Jackson Hole symposium, where Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered a hawkish message in 2022 that sent risk assets tumbling. Moderate inflation can support gold by reducing cash’s purchasing power, but aggressive monetary tightening can pressure the metal because higher real interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding an asset that produces no yield. Cooling central-bank demand has weighed on the outlook, while investor demand through exchange-traded products and futures has provided support as Treasury actions renewed gold’s appeal as a macro hedge.