Polymarket, a Polygon-based prediction market, assigns an 8% chance that the United States and Canada announce an agreement to lower tariffs by Aug. 31, down from 46% the previous week. The probability of an agreement being finalized by the end of 2026 is 58%. Trade negotiations collapsed on Friday shortly before a midnight deadline, triggering Washington’s threatened 50% tariffs on about $20 billion of Canadian goods. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Ottawa would impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods from Sept. 8, matching the U.S. tariffs dollar for dollar. President Donald Trump has also threatened to raise tariffs on Canadian vehicles, auto parts and steel to 50%. Skybridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci, the former White House Communications Director, nevertheless predicted a deal within the next two weeks, citing political pressure on Trump ahead of the midterm election.