Countries affected by conflict produced about 45 million barrels per day of oil based on 2025 output, representing more than 43% of global supply in 2026, Reuters calculations using International Energy Agency data show. U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran six months ago triggered what has become the largest oil supply crisis on record, with no clear end in sight. The Russia-Ukraine war has reduced production and refining, including in Kazakhstan, while conflict in Libya and U.S. restrictions on Venezuelan oil exports have added pressure. Current Gulf disruptions are estimated at 5 million to 7 million barrels per day, and attacks in the Red Sea and near Egypt’s Suez Canal have highlighted the risk to broader flows. Conflicts in the Gulf and Ukraine have cut global refining capacity by about a tenth, contributing to fuel shortages, higher prices and inflation. The International Energy Agency has released record volumes from emergency stockpiles, but those releases are now largely complete as global inventories continue to decline.