Japan 10-year JGB yield falls 0.010% to 2.880% as curve flattens

The newly issued 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose to 2.890% on the afternoon of the 25th before falling 0.010 percentage point to 2.880% on the morning of the 26th. Lower crude oil prices supported bond buying by easing concerns about Japanese inflation, while position-adjustment selling and profit-taking limited gains. Investors adopted a wait-and-see stance before Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino’s speech scheduled for the 27th. Japan’s yield curve is gradually flattening as intermediate-maturity yields, which are more sensitive to monetary policy, rise relatively sharply on expectations of an early Bank of Japan rate hike, while super-long yields increase more modestly. This contrasts with curve steepening in the United States and United Kingdom, where fiscal expansion concerns and persistent inflation have pushed super-long yields higher. Investors are also assessing whether current yields already reflect the Bank of Japan’s policy outlook, while monitoring U.S. rates, Japan’s fiscal position, crude oil prices and whether the 10-year yield can break above 3%.

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